Guide to the Infobetting estimate of the odds used for Asian handicap betting

What are those numbers next to the Asian odds in Infobetting's comparisons?

They are estimates, that is, an attempt to determine the fair value of Asian handicap betting, working on the basis of traditional and betting exchange odds. In the first case, a set of selected bookmakers is looked at; in the second, the odds from sites like Betfair or Betdaq are used. Opting for a dual assessment was intended to achieve more reliable results. The betting exchanges probably react more quickly than the average bookmaker to market moods, but when it comes to using them as a benchmark, especially in less changeable leagues, they are only accurate right before the match. Traditional bookmakers probably provide a better indication.

Before reading this guide, it is best to read the one related to Asian handicap betting since I will be assuming that you all know what it is and how it works.

The purpose of such estimates is particularly clear when the spread is above ½ (0.50). This is because Asian handicap betting with spreads of ¼ (0-0,50), ½ (0,50), or 0 (pk, dnb, level ball) are nothing other than a direct consequence of 1X2 odds. Therefore, by applying a simple formula, it is possible to calculate Asian odds starting from the classic 1X2. Have a look at our Asian Handicap Tools section.

For a spread > 0.50, things change slightly and this is where a system really shows its mettle. Converting 1x2 odds into Asian odds cannot be done directly, that is, it cannot be done by simply applying a formula to the odds. A coefficient must be included in the calculation and Infobetting has put in place a system to calculate this coefficient consistently and for a number of years. For example, everyone knows that the conversion of 1.60 odds in French 2nd division is not the same as the odds for the Norwegian second division. This difference is expressed with a coefficient that takes past results into account and thus has a statistical value. Such an estimate can prove useful, but clearly the punter's ability to interpret such details, in combination with other information and personal assessments, is what counts. This system does not indicate what bets to place. It merely indicates where value might or might not lie or if the traditional odds are better or worse than the Asian odds available on the market.

For example: Inter - Chievo on 23/11/2011
1X2 odds: 1.61 4.02 6.70
Asian odds (Chievo +1) 2.11 1.85
Estimate (Bookmaker) 2.28 1.78
Estimate (Exchange) 2.36 1.74

This system suggests, on the basis of previous results in similar games (regardless of the team) in the Italian Serie A league, the odds with Inter -1 should be higher than what is available on the market. It is a mathematical calculation and not an assessment of previous encounters between Inter and Chievo, which would have no worth other than for cheap magazines. A punter who chose to wager against the favourite in this match could see this information as a confirmation of his or her assessment; visa versa, it could set alarm bells ringing.

In simple terms, the meaning is this: in the Italian league - at present - it is less likely than the market thinks that a team at 1.60 will win, at home, by more than 1 goal. The calculation takes many seasons into account, meaning it is not flexible enough to take into account sudden changes in a trend. Nonetheless, it has its value since the coefficient calculation is updated constantly.

Final note: while it is true that the usefulness of the estimates increases with when the spread > 0.50, it is equally true that it reaches its most reliable point between 0.75 (3/4) and 1.50 (1 ½ ). This is so because handicaps of two or more goals are less easy to forecast, especially in the major football leagues. In Serie A, for example, it is not common to find matches with a favourite with odds of 1.10-1.15. This does not mean that estimates with a handicap of 2 or more should be ignored - in some leagues they can be very useful -but they need to be considered taking into account what is indicated in this guide.

Annex
For lovers of formulas, here is an example that might come in handy. Taking a 0:1 spread, where the away side starts, so to speak, +1

Home odds = (1 – coeff o:1) / (prob1 – coeff o:1)
Away Odds = (1 – coeff o:1) / (1 – prob1)

prob1 = probability of a home victory
coeff o:1 = the coefficient that expresses the probability that the home team wins by exactly one goal.

Coeff o:1 in these cases, it is empirically calculated with the value of 0.20, so for a home team with odds (traditional odds, 1x2) of 1.60, with a probability of 0.625, we have:
Odds 1 (for Asian Handicap -1): 1-0,20 / 0,625-0,20 = 0.80/0,425 = 1,88
Odds 2 (for Asian Handicap -1): 1-0,20 / 1-0,625 = 0.80/0,375 = 2,13

Clearly, this is only a rough estimate. What Infobetting is trying to do, using statistics, it is calculate the correct coefficient for this type of match. Indeed, according to our calculations, the correct coefficient for games like Inter - Chievo is about 0.28. If we are looking at, say, Aalesund – Start in Norway, it would be less than 0.25 and so on.

The coefficient determines the correct value of Asian odds. We all know that football leagues are not all the same and so the aim is, as far as is possible, to be precise. However, be careful: the system calculates the coefficient for Serie A and it does not know if Milan or Juventus is playing. It does not know the characteristics of the teams. The data must always been interpreted, but that doesn't make them less useful.